Match Preview: AC Milan 2-1 Genoa Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A

AC Milan – Genoa Prediction and Tips for today, April 18, 2021

Football: ITALY: Serie A – Round 31
Kick-off: 11:30 AC Milan – Genoa
Tip: Under 3.5 Goals
Odds: 1.46
Bookmaker: Bet365
Match Result: 2:1 WON!!!

Match Preview and Predictions

  • AC Milan’s first Serie A (SA) title in a decade has long been lost in reality, but they’ve won four of their last seven league games (W4, D2, L1), with each win seeing Milan score first. In turn, they expanded their near-perfect unbeaten record when doing so (W19, D1). Milan are also league leaders in the ‘HT table’ so far (W17, D9, L4), translating all 17 HT leads to FT wins.
  • However, only four sides have picked up fewer SA home points than Milan this calendar year (W2, D2, L4), with the ‘Rossoneri’ conceding thrice in three of those losses. Genoa are also one of the only two sides against which Milan haven’t yet won in SA action under Stefano Pioli’s regime (D1, L1).
  • Indeed, Genoa can go unbeaten against Milan in a single SA season for the first time since 2014-15, after a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture. That remains a great motivator for the otherwise purposeless mid-table side, who lament a return of just one win (D5, L3) across nine SA games.
  • To improve upon that, the visitors must stop conceding late, having shipped a significant 27.27% of their SA ‘goals against’ beyond the 70th minute. Furthermore, the visitors have failed to score before HT in 80% of their SA road trips, which adds further gravitas to their current loss rate of 50% as SA away outsiders this term (W2, D5, L7).
  • Players to watch: Milan have won all five SA games where Ante Rebić has scored, thrice being their first scorer on the day. Mattia Destro has a similar impact for Genoa, netting their first goal in seven of his eight goalscoring league games this term (W5, D3). Three of the last four goals were match openers scored inside the first 25 minutes.
  • Hot stat: Twenty-two (81.48%) of the 27 prior SA H2Hs played out so far this century have produced under 1.5 first-half goals.